Weather specialists in the UAE report that temperatures are currently around four degrees Celsius higher than seasonal averages. However, the country could experience additional rainfall in the coming period, offering a change in conditions as meteorologists monitor the latest weather developments.
UAE Weather Update: Temperatures Remain 4°C Above Normal as More Rainfall Is Forecast.
UAE Temperatures Stay 4°C Above Seasonal Norms as El Niño May Bring More Rain, Expert Says
Temperatures across the United Arab Emirates remain higher than usual for this time of year, with readings running approximately 3°C to 4°C above seasonal averages. However, the relatively dry conditions experienced at the beginning of autumn could give way to increased rainfall in the coming months, according to Ibrahim Al Jarwan, chairman of the Emirates Astronomy Society.
Speaking during Dubai Radio’s Direct Line programme, Al Jarwan explained that although the weather has started to improve as the country transitions towards winter, the heat has not completely subsided. Residents are still experiencing warmer conditions than would normally be expected during this period.
He attributed the continuing warmth partly to El Niño, a naturally occurring climate phenomenon involving changes in sea surface temperatures across the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Al Jarwan expects the phenomenon to become more pronounced during October, November and early December, potentially influencing weather patterns and increasing the likelihood of above-average rainfall.
Why Are Temperatures Still Higher Than Usual?
Al Jarwan explained that the UAE would typically experience daytime temperatures in the mid-30s Celsius during the first week of October, while nighttime readings would generally fall to around 22°C to 23°C.
Recent temperatures, however, have been considerably higher. According to figures from the National Centre of Meteorology (NCM) cited by the expert, maximum temperatures across much of the country have ranged between 37°C and 43°C.
These readings indicate that the transition from summer to autumn has not yet brought the usual level of cooling.
Al Jarwan said the persistent warmth was consistent with his earlier expectations of a relatively dry beginning to the autumn season. While temperatures remain elevated, he noted that humidity levels are not unusual for this time of year.
The combination of warm daytime conditions and seasonal humidity means residents may continue to experience uncomfortable weather, particularly in coastal areas.
High Humidity and Morning Fog Expected in Autumn
Although the UAE is still experiencing above-average temperatures, humidity and morning fog are familiar features of the country’s autumn weather.
Al Jarwan said humidity levels in coastal locations can rise above 80 per cent on many days. In inland areas, levels may exceed 70 per cent, creating conditions favourable for fog to develop during the early morning hours.
October and November are traditionally associated with frequent fog across the UAE. According to Al Jarwan, morning fog can occur on more than 10 days during each of these months.
He explained that both elevated humidity and fog are natural seasonal occurrences, even though temperatures remain warmer than their usual averages.
His comments highlight the difference between normal autumn weather patterns and the unusually persistent heat currently affecting the country.
Residents travelling during the early morning hours may therefore need to remain alert to reduced visibility when fog develops, particularly on roads where weather conditions can change quickly.
What Is El Niño and How Could It Affect the UAE?
El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon associated with warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in parts of the equatorial Pacific Ocean. These changes can influence atmospheric circulation and affect weather conditions in regions far beyond the Pacific.
Al Jarwan linked the current warmer conditions to El Niño and suggested that the phenomenon could contribute to increased rainfall across parts of the world, including the Arabian Peninsula.
However, its effects are not uniform. Weather outcomes depend on several factors, and different regions may experience contrasting conditions during the same climate event.
A stronger El Niño episode can coincide with more pronounced weather extremes in some locations. These may include heavy rainfall, strong winds or drought, depending on regional atmospheric conditions.
Al Jarwan emphasised that El Niño is part of the Earth’s natural climate cycle. He distinguished it from environmental issues such as ozone layer depletion, noting that the phenomenon is a naturally occurring variation in ocean and atmospheric conditions.
Although the climate pattern may provide an indication of possible changes, it does not guarantee that every part of the UAE will receive above-average rainfall. Local weather systems and atmospheric conditions will continue to influence when and where rain develops.
When Can the UAE Expect Cooler Weather?
According to Al Jarwan, temperatures are expected to become more moderate as the UAE progresses further into autumn.
He referred to traditional seasonal terminology used in the region, explaining that the country was experiencing the period known as “Durr Al Sittin” and was expected to move into “Durr Al Sab’in” around the middle of October.
These traditional calendar periods are associated with seasonal changes and the gradual transition towards cooler weather. Their interpretation can differ across parts of the Arabian Peninsula, depending on local climate traditions.
Al Jarwan said stronger winds and weather systems carrying rain could contribute to a more noticeable decline in temperatures. However, he noted that the seasonal wind event he referred to had not yet taken place at the time of his comments.
For now, residents may continue to experience warm afternoons alongside increasingly humid mornings and occasional fog, before more noticeable cooling develops later in the season.
The timing and extent of the temperature drop will depend on the weather systems affecting the country in the coming weeks.
Earlier Forecasts Pointed to an Exceptionally Hot Summer
The UAE’s continuing warmth follows earlier warnings from meteorologists about elevated temperatures during the summer months.
In a previous interview with INSIDER 18, National Centre of Meteorology weather expert Dr Ahmed Habib said the country was expected to experience a hotter summer than in previous years.
Habib also discussed the possible influence of El Niño on wider regional temperatures, while emphasising that conditions in the UAE would depend on the specific weather systems affecting the country.
He explained that a thermal low-pressure system associated with the Indian monsoon was drawing hot air towards the southern parts of the UAE. This contributed to daytime temperatures reaching approximately 47°C to 48°C at the time.
The explanation highlighted how regional pressure systems and air movements can influence temperatures, even when broader seasonal patterns suggest a gradual transition towards cooler conditions.
How Winds and Seasonal Weather Systems Influence Rainfall
Habib also pointed to the influence of northwesterly winds carrying dry desert air. These winds were limiting cloud formation and reducing the likelihood of rainfall during the period discussed.
The UAE’s main summer rainfall window typically occurs between mid-July and mid-August, although actual rainfall varies from year to year.
During this period, a northward movement of the Intertropical Convergence Zone can help transport moisture towards the region. The resulting atmospheric conditions may support the development of rain-bearing clouds, particularly over eastern parts of the UAE and, on some occasions, around Liwa.
The development of rainfall depends on the availability of moisture, atmospheric instability and the movement of weather systems. As a result, the presence of a broader climate pattern alone cannot determine the exact timing or location of precipitation.
What Residents Should Expect in the Coming Weeks
The latest outlook suggests that the UAE could experience a gradual shift towards more moderate temperatures as autumn progresses, while the possibility of increased rainfall remains a key feature of the forecast discussed by Al Jarwan.
Nevertheless, temperatures may remain above seasonal averages for some time, and humidity and morning fog are likely to continue as familiar features of the autumn season.
The potential influence of El Niño adds another factor to the broader weather outlook, but its effects will depend on how regional and global atmospheric conditions develop.
For residents, the immediate picture is one of lingering warmth, humid mornings and the possibility of more rain later in the season. Official forecasts issued by the National Centre of Meteorology will provide the most reliable guidance on specific rainfall events, temperature changes and local weather warnings.
While the transition to cooler conditions is expected to continue, the pace of that change remains dependent on the movement of weather systems across the region.
